Sometimes this job feels more like political analysis than stock market prognosticating. The reason? Marijuana stocks are intrinsically tied to politics. After all, until prohibitions against cannabis are lifted the world over, pot stocks won’t reach their full potential.
Which brings us to a tantalizing new prospect.
I’ve been writing about marijuana stocks for years now, and I’ve cooked up a number of ways federal U.S. marijuana legalization could get it done. From Congressional maneuvers, to presidential executive orders, to ballot initiatives, to Supreme Court interdictions, it’s safe to say that I’ve thought a lot about how U.S. pot legalization could happen—and happen fast.
After all, many of the pot stocks I routinely write about would skyrocket in value in the event of marijuana legalization in the U.S.
Which brings me to what I want to focus on now: the flagging Democratic Party approval ratings.
Stay with me here: I promise the topic is connected to marijuana stocks.
You see, the Democrats have been taking a beating as of late. With razor-thin majorities in both the House and Senate, it would make sense that they would try to do something popular for a change. (Source: “Biden Approval SINKING FAST as Dems Face Midterm Bloodbath,” Breaking Points, YouTube video, September 2, 2021.)
And there are few political positions in the U.S. that are as resoundingly popular as pot legalization. A comfortable super-majority of U.S. citizens have said they would be happy to see pot legalized in one form or another.
Heck, even just enacting medical marijuana legalization in the U.S. would go a long way toward gaining political popularity and helping supercharge pot stock prices.
But, of course, President Joe Biden is famously resolute in his stance against federal U.S. pot legalization. He is, after all, a politician from another era who’s certainly at odds with the younger base of his party.
But I digress. My point is that the Democrats need a win, and marijuana legalization could be that win.
Sound far-fetched? Actually, it’s not only realistic, but it’s been done before.
In Canada, before the 2015 federal election, the Liberal Party had fallen to third place in the country’s parliamentary system after decades of dominance.
When Justin Trudeau ran in the 2015 election as Liberal Leader, part of his appeal was that he was a fresh new face with fresh new ideas. One of those fresh new ideas was marijuana legalization.
The Liberals went on to win the 2015 election with a majority, and Trudeau became prime minister.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and claim that pot legalization was the only reason the Liberals won the 2015 election. Legalization did, however, play a role, and it could play an equally potent role in U.S. elections, should a politician have the foresight to seize the opportunity.
It need not be a Democratic politician either; the Republicans are perfectly capable of jumping onto this extremely popular policy.
While the conservative base is more anti-marijuana than the liberal base, marijuana legalization is a very popular position across many states. Those include the all-important battleground states that play outsized roles in determining who gets to be president.
I’ll be honest, dear reader: I doubt that Biden, after decades of being a marijuana prohibitionist, is suddenly going to change his tune. That said, stranger things have happened.
More to the point, if the Democrats find themselves locked out of the White House come 2024 (or even if they lose their majorities in the upcoming midterm elections), it doesn’t take a political genius to see that some positive and exciting legislative promise needs to happen to reinvigorate the voting population.
This will be especially true when Donald Trump is no longer in the political equation. Trump could serve one more term as president, but he would almost certainly not stage another campaign should he lose the 2024 election (that is, if he even runs in 2024).
Saying you’re not the other side can only get you so far politically. Eventually, as a party, you have to offer people something.
This has somehow failed to be grasped by either political party, but mark my words, someone will eventually wake up to this fact. And when they do, they’ll see that a perfectly suitable bipartisan issue is sitting there, ripe for the picking: federal marijuana legalization in the U.S.
What’s more, pot legalization would bring in huge sums of tax revenue, which in turn would help spur the economy, which in turn would help with being reelected. The economy, after all, is perhaps the strongest indicator of a sitting president’s ability to retain their position in the next election.
All this to say that the political case only gets stronger for U.S. marijuana legalization.
So, there’s a popular policy that has a strong political case for its passage, one that’s simultaneously pro-business and anti-incarceration, appealing to both sides of the aisle. Really, can we say the same thing about any other political issue in modern America?
From where I’m sitting, pot legalization looks more and more irresistible to the two American parties that are in desperate need of reinvigoration.
When federal U.S. marijuana legalization is eventually announced, marijuana stocks will likely surge quickly. The only thing that has yet to be decided is when legalization will take place.
Analyst Take
The stage is set for American leaders to take political advantage of the gift that is federal U.S. pot legalization.
While it may not happen today, tomorrow, or even next year, an opportunity this juicy can only remain so long before a politically savvy actor gobbles it up.
And when they do, we can expect pot stocks to make massive gains.